शुक्रवार, 26 दिसंबर 2008

Indo-Pak Tension: It’s all gains for Kayani & Co.


It was the springs of 2007 when the then army chief of Pakistan, Gen. Musharraf turned tables against himself. He fired the then Chief Justice of Pakistan, Justice Iftekhar Chowdhury. Pakistan Army which was seen clinging to power suddenly became a demon in the eyes of Pakistani people, who is hell bent to derail the process of nation-building, and Musharraf became its symbol. Large scale protests started across Pakistan against Martial Law. Soon it became a national crisis in Pakistan. People cutting across all lanes and by-lanes of society came out in street against Musharraf and Co. Army took help of its old friends, the religious fighters, Jehadi groups to terrorize protesting people. Several suicide bomb blasts took place in Punjab province at the places where a pro CJP rally was to be held or was being held. Apparently these blasts were staged to terrorize protesters. But, this could not deter people of Pakistan in their tirade against Mush. March for democracy continued. For the first time in its history, people of Pakistan were openly shouting slogans like—Army go back to barracks. Then to derail Justice Chowdhry’s rally in Karachi, MQM’s goons carried out savage killings of peaceful protesters. Rally was cancelled. But mood of people was defiant. Protests continued. Then came the fateful month of October 2007 when Musharraf trying to pacify feathers of social elites ordered the famous siege of Lal Mosque of Islamabad. This he did to distance himself from Jehadi group and establish secular credential of his army in the eyes of international players, who were becoming wary of his real intentions. His attempts backfired. The good old friends of Pakistan Army, the Jehadis did not take this well and soon they were brothers in arms with Pakistani people and against their creators-Pakistan Army. Under US pressure, Mush’s battalions were waging a battle along its Afghan border. This also alienated Pak army from common Pakistani. This whole scenario heavily dented the image and position of Pak army in Pakistani Society. The Olive dressers, who once were considered nations builders and hailed as saviors of Pakistani Nation, suddenly became crushers of Awam. Pakistan army was criticized for rocking the boat of democracy. The Generals stood isolated in Pakistan with no friend in the western capitals either. At this juncture, Lt. General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, DG ISI, was promoted to a four star general and then Gen Musharraf handed over the baton of Pak army to Kayani by making him Chief of Army Staff or COAS or Army Chief.

When Kayani took over from Musharraf, Pak army was in very bad shape. It was waging a battle along Durand line against its own people. The defenders of nation had become enemies of Pakistan. The large scale desertions weren’t helping either. To save its image from more bruises, Pak army negotiated a peace deal with Pakistani Taliban. This move instead of helping regain its position in Pakistani society did more harm to its image for capitulation to Jehadi groups. Kayani had no option but to yield to popular demand and he slowly started retreating from the scene, like any smart General only to retaliate once his forces regain vitals and situation is ready to turn to his favour.

GHQ Rawalpinidi consciously started efforts to make image of its new COAS. Words suddenly spread that Kayani was very professional soldier, totally apolitical, keen on rebuilding army’s downed morals and image. When people of Pakistan were waging war for democracy on the streets of Pakistan, Kayani, at his palatial office in Rawalpindi was considering his next moves so as to position Pak army as pivot of its policies and decision making. Feb 2008 general elections gave surprising results. Long sidelined, opposition democratic parties claimed and achieved power. Musharraf had to retreat to his post retirement bungalow. Soon, like any newborn democracy, political parties started sparring among themselves. Kayani never tried to intervene. In fact he never even thought of it. It was all his gains as political players quarreled like cats. He kept enjoying it. Sharif and Zardari parted ways, with no effect on GHQ behavior.

In July, 2008, after acceding to presidency, flamboyant Zardari now started thinking of contending the all powerful army. His trusted aide, Rehman Mullick openly advised that all powerful intelligence wing of army, the rogue Inter Services Intelligence or ISI must be under civilian control. This logical but daring advice changed the scenario and gave an opportunity to Kayani for which he was waiting for long and patiently. As was expected, Pak army retaliated heavily against the Rehman Mullick’s suggestion. It refused to hand over the reins of ISI to civilian government. At this time, Gen Kayani promoted his trusted aide Major Gen. Ahmed Shuja Pasha to a Lieutenant General and made him DG of ISI, a post he himself held earlier. By his move Gen Kayani made a signature statement that his army may be down but surely it is not out yet. Still, time had not come when Army can come out of the barracks or generals could have been able to reinstate credibility of the institution called—Fauj. But, like any General, Kayani was desperate, he didn’t want to be on the sidelines for long, he was smarting under the circumstances and was desperate to change it.

Seeing its top boss’ discomfort, the ISI drew a plan. This plan was to plan to regain credibility in the eyes of common Pakistani, prominence in the society and command over Pakistan’s decision making. A truce was arranged with Tehriq-E-Taliban. And then with the help of these very Jehadis, suicide attack on Indian Embassy of Kabul was staged. An embassy is considered the country’s territory and its violation or attack is deemed as attack on the country itself. To sum up things I would like to draw a headline in ET on the news-“India attacked in Kabul.” As was expected by the ISI conspirators, India was enraged, but to their dismay it did not respond the way they desired. Their ploy had backfired. The US and other western forces tightened the screws on Pak generals. The US Fleet commander of Indian Ocean, Admiral Mike Mullen summoned top Pak generals including Kayani at his aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln’s deck for a dressing down. Kayani returned Rawalpindi, humiliated, infuriated. Now he had another task in hand. To teach western bosses a lesson that he must not be taken for granted.

Seeing their boss’ mood the ISI dug out a plan shelved for almost a year. Target India. Target its financial capital, target with precision, target with immense brutality and sheer element of surprise. They wished to achieve three goals by targeting Mumbai. First was to reestablish credibility of Fauj, Second was to achieve central position in every decision making regarding security of Pakistan and third to convey a message to Western capitals, loud and clear that they cannot be taken for granted.

It is needless to elaborate on the failure of Indian intelligence gathering establishment. But it must be pointed out that the Indian diplomatic elites, South and North block mandarins failed to see the ploy at the initial level. It is now, after one month of the 26/11 that it is dawning upon them that the whole plot was actually designed, written and executed with precision by none other than Pakistan Army.

The ease with which Pakistan army has raised the slogan of national sovereignty, security and pride, shows it all. One by one, step by step, by creating war hysteria, about threat from its eastern border, Pak army seems to have achieved all of the aforesaid objectives.

By creating a threat from India, its old enemy, Generals have succeeded in drumming up nationalistic fervor among common Pakistanis. Now Pak citizens are seeing army as saviors of their nation. Since Zardari came to power, he was making amends to Pakistan’s policies towards India. He said of resolving Kashmir Issues sooner. He intended to be friends with India and even went on to say that India was never a threat to Pakistan. Even after Mumbai attack Zardari was offering full cooperation to India, was even ready to send ISI boss to help in investigation. Opposition leader Nawaz Sharif was also asking his government to extend full support to India. He accepted Kasab as Pakistani citizen on national television. Pak army, whose whole philosophy is based on opposing India, the philosophy of its very existence, could not digest Zardari’s words. Nor was it ready to give Sharif an opportunity to capitalize a political mileage.

Situations and war of words clearly indicate the change in Pakistan, its politics, mood on its streets. These were the very objectives, Kayani and his commanders intended to achieve. Sharif has climbed down from his earlier statement. PM Gilani is praising army for its preparedness and now the dove Zardari says that he will fight for Pakistan unto his last breath and last drop of blood. Anti-India slogans are again been heard shouting in major Pakistani towns. Fauj is ready to retaliate within minutes if Pakistan’s sovereignty is violated. It is like as if India is about to attack airbases in Sargodha, Mianwali and Chaklala. According to reports, Pakistan is redeploying troops from Durand line to Mcmohan line. By doing so, Pak generals are trying to give a message to US and other western powers too, that they cannot be taken for granted. That they are not fighting with Taliban on Afghanistan border without a price. That Pak army is well within its rights to withdraw forces from Wana and Swat and other FATA regions. That if west chooses to support India it will also have to pay a price. It will not get the support from Pakistan army. On this front, Kayani has achieved positive results. Mullen reached Islamabad to praise Pakistan. Interpol chief also towed the line of Pakistan.

The attack on Kabul backfired on Kayani and Co. But they drew lessons. This time, after 26/11 it seems they had a backup plan. And now, it’s all gains for them, with India, Zardari and the west all dancing to their tunes.

बुधवार, 24 दिसंबर 2008

They will only wage war of words


“There is a limit to our restraint. We have all options open before us on the table”—Pranab Mukherjea
“Our restraint must not be construed as our weakness. Pakistan must act on its promises or we are well within our rights to defend our countrymen by every possible mean”—Manmohan Singh
“Pakistan is ready as always to defend itself from any type of aggression. Pakistani nation stands united at these times of crises”—Y R Gilani
“Pakistan Army will launch counter-offensive within minutes, if attacked on eastern front”—Gen, Ashfaq P. Kayani

These are the words of top leadership of two nuclear powered neighbors of south Asia. These words, if taken seriously, may send a person in cold shivering, if he thinks of the confrontation escalating into a full-scale nuclear war.

But, I request you all not to be afraid. India is not going to wage a war with Pakistan, for sure, in near future. Neither will Pakistan. These war cries are as hollow as has been our leadership’s promises. War mongering politicians may seem you attracting but they are not so. They are jingoistic in nature to feed the unabated war mongering of news channels, to address those people who are demanding that India must teach a lesson to Pakistan. But I assure you that leaders of both south Asian neighbors will only wage war of words and nothing more. Ground realities will not let them do so.

The world is facing serious economic crisis. It’s a crisis of century. It’s a crisis of faith, of trust in our global financial institutions, the IMF, World Bank, WTO etc. World leaders are busy negotiating to deal with crisis of immense effect. So had been our politicos before 26/11. They had been giving sound bites of assurances that India will easily tide over the crisis. In fact, our PM had been assuring of the soundness of Indian banking system, every other day. The crisis is still there, deeply entrenched. Indian state will need more funds to have more social stimulus packages. Government will have to give help to various sectors to face the economic crisis arising from the US. Depleting forex reserves, shrinking exports, rising oil import bill despite crash in crude prices has just added to the woes of the Indian Government. The US, UK and other western countries are announcing bailout packages as their daily finance bulletin. India does not have that kind of money to help itself dig out of this economic swamp. It will have to maneuver its limited resources to get over this crisis. No one can fathom the depth of this crisis. So, no one can predict the amount we will need to handle it. How can the Indian leadership then have the gut to wage a war?

It’s another issue that despite assurances from our services chiefs we very well know that our forces are not capable of carrying out surgical precision strike against Pakistan. They may be able to win a war in the longer term due to sheer number, but a short, well targeted precision strike is not and has not been our armed forces’ philosophy. We have not equipped them for this short term target achievement. Neither any country has equipped its forces for surgical operations. They are not meant to succeed. We have Israel as an example. Despite having most capable commandos, they have not been able to fully root out enemies of Zionism. The US had initiated war in Afghanistan to do the same thing and look what they have got as result. India won the 1971 war not because of it’s forces’ capabilities but because of weariness of Pakistan armed forces stationed in the then East Pakistan and also with the help of MuktiBahini, consisting of local people. We can commend Field Marshal Manekshaw for utilizing the situation in our better interests. How can we forget the Kargil episode. A few Pakistani army men entrenched in snowy mountains needed fighter jets to be uprooted. And also think of the human and economic cost of Kargil war. We lost lots of our forces which in any normal warfare would not have been.


Now let’s move towards Pakistan.

Pakistani government is begging from all those it can for economic help. President Zardari went from nowhere to everywhere. The US had to recommend IMF to grant a loan of billions of dollars with no strings attached. Because world can’t afford to have a failed Pakistan state . The inflation rate in Pakistan is running as high as 25 per cent. The holiest institution of Pakistan, It’s army has recently stalled many up gradation programs due to lack of funds. Pakistan army was building a brand new Headquarter building for itself in the garrison city of Rawalpindi. Work on the site has stopped, as they have no funds. Think of an army lacking such paltry sums saying it will give a befitting reply to its enemies.

On another front along the Durand Line, Pakistan army is facing another problem. Large scale desertions. Its cadre fighting Taliban are surrendering to Taliban. They are very demoralized. Since last two years, Pakistan army and government have had to negotiate with Taliban/Al Qaida fighters many a times to keep it’s cadre’s sagging morale up.

I had my own logics, which I have put before you. Draw your own conclusion and send me comments on this article.

रविवार, 14 दिसंबर 2008

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जिस फौजी शासन की बहाली के लिए हमारे यहां पुरज़ोर वक़ालत की जा रही है, उसी फौजी शासन के बूटों तले दबे कुचले पाकिस्तानियों ने कितना ज़ोर लगाया है फौज का राज ख़त्म करने के लिए।

मुल्क़ की तक़सीम के बाद हमारे देश में लूला लंगड़ा ही सही लोकतांत्रिक शासन ही रहा है, 1975-77 के इमरजेंसी के दौर को छोड़कर। फौजी जनरलों ने हमारे सियासतदानों की फरमाबरदारी में कभी कोई गड़बड़ी नहीं की। आज हम तरक़्क़ी कर रहे हैं, महाशक्ति बनने की बातें कर रहे हैं। दुनिया की इकलौती महाशक्ति अमेरिका भी हमारी सुन रहा है।

अब ज़रा सरहद पार के हालात पर भी नज़र डालें। आज़ादी के दस बरस के भीतर ही उस नए नवेले देश के अरमानों को जनरल अयूब के फौजी बूटों ने कुचल डाला था। जनरल अयूब ने न सिर्फ़ विरोधियों का सफाया किया बल्कि पाकिस्तान की एक पूरी की पूरी सियासी नस्ल को तबाहो बर्बाद कर दिया। 1965 की लड़ाई में उन्हें भारत के हाथों मुंह की खानी पड़ी तब भी अयूब ने तख़्त न छोड़ा। जब कोई सियासतदां अयूब के ख़िलाफ़ खड़ा होने की ज़ुर्रत नहीं जुटा सका तो पाकिस्तान के अवाम ने ये बीड़ा उठाया। अयूब को गद्दी छोड़नी पड़ी। वो निज़ाम को एक और जनरल के हाथों में सौंपकर हट गए। अब जनता की ताक़त से जनाब ज़ुल्फ़िक़ार अली भुट्टो ने जम्हूरियत की जंग शुरू की। कामयाब भी हुए, पर सत्ता मिलते ही वो भी तानाशाह हो गए। अपने प्यारे मुल्क को अपनी एक ज़िद के चलते दूसरा बंटवारा झेलने पर मजबूर किया। हिंदुस्तान से लड़ाई के लिए फौज को उकसाया। हारे, पर अकड़ न गई। पाकिस्तान की जनता बेचारी फौज और भुट्टो के बीच पिस रही थी। आख़िर, भुट्टो के बनाए हुए एक जनरल जिया उल हक़ ने उन्हें फांसी के तख़्त पर लटका दिया। पाकिस्तान में एक बार फिर जम्हूरियत का क़त्ल हो चुका था। जिया ने मुल्लाओं को पाला पोसा, मज़हबी सियासतदानों को बढ़ावा दिया। राज के ग्यारहवें बरस में वो भी एक संदिग्ध मौत मारे गए। इस दरमियान पाकिस्तान के अवाम ने लोकतांत्रिक व्यवस्था के लिए न जाने कितनी कुर्बानियां दीं। जनरल जिया की मौत के बात पाकिस्तान में ग्यारह बरस तक लोकतंत्र क़ायम रहा, लुटा-पिटा, ठगा सा। बेनज़ीर भुट्टो और जिया के प्यादे नवाज़ शरीफ़ के बीच सत्ता की शह-मात का खेल चलता रहा। आख़िरकार, इस खेल को ख़त्म किया एक फौजी, जनरल परवेज़ मुशर्रफ़ ने 1999 में नवाज़ शरीफ़ का तख़्ता पलटकर। पाकिस्तानी अवाम के लिए एक बार फिर वही दोराहा था, फौजी शासन और लोकतंत्र में से किसी एक को चुनने का। वहां के लोगों ने फिर लोकतंत्र का मुश्किल रास्ता ही चुना। मार्च 2007 में जब मुशर्रफ़ विरोधी प्रदर्शन शुरू हुए तो किसी ने न सोचा था कि अवाम की आवाज़ ऊपरवाले की आवाज़ बनेगी और मुशर्रफ़ का राज भी ख़त्म होगा। पर हुआ यही। तमाम ज़द्दोजहद के बाद लोकतंत्र की पाकिस्तान में फिर वापसी हुई। और एक बार फिर सियासतदां कुत्ते बिल्लियों की तरह सत्ता की रोटी के टुकड़ों के लिए लड़ रहे हैं। पर फिर भी पाकिस्तान की जनता को संतोष है कि उसके अरमान फौजी बूटों तले नहीं कुचले जा रहे। वो बाट जोह रहे हैं उस वक़्त का जब ये नेता फिर से आएंगे उनके दर पर वोट मांगने। तब वो ले लेंगे बदला अपनी उपेक्षा का।

तो साहब इतनी लंबी दास्तां का सबक यही है कि हम लोकतंत्र को दुत्कारें नहीं, पड़ोसी देश के हाल से सबक लें और फौज का जो काम है उसे वही करने दें। अच्छे बुरे लोग हम भी होते हैं सिर्फ़ नेता ही नहीं। लोकतंत्र को खारिज करने की नापाक मांग उठाना ऊपरवाले की आवाज़ को नकारने जैसा है।