Thank You! Mr. President

The countdown has begun. Curtains are being drawn. Analytics are sharpening their skills, pens and memories to write a critique of his legacy. Yes, The Obama administration has embarked upon its last leap before sunset. On 13^th January, the 44^th US president Barack Hussein Obama gave his last state of the union address in the US congress. With it, he and his colleagues may not have starting packing up to bow out of DC, but they surely have made a laundry list of tasks to be done within next few months, have marked some goals to be achieved. They sure have been counting their hits and misses, to write memoirs like, ‘My Obama Years’ on the lines of great Henry Kissinger’s famous memoir, My White House years.

With his last state of the union address, the Obama administration has started the journey of their last year in office, as the US constitution doesn’t permit more than two terms for a person to be the president of the US. This rule has had only one exception, when President Franklin Delano Roosevelt won four consecutive terms of the office presidency in third and fourth decade of last century.

Though it may be too early to analyze the legacy of Obama administration, as he is still in office and the next president is yet to be chosen by the American people. But, with his last state of the union address, we can have some hard and soft looks at his white house years. We may not be in a position to pronounce a judgment yet, as there may be some surprises or in worst case some shocks in store, but we surely can try to recall his journey as president, his milestones, his trials and tribulations.

Obama aimed the presidency very early. As a first timer Chicago senator, he started to groom himself for the top job of the world. Within the democratic party, he had many obstacles. He had no political background, he was too young even for the US political standards and most of all, he was a black, which is an ostracized class of people in the US society. But, he turned his deficiencies into strengths. Within the democratic party, he posed as an icon of non dynastic politics, with his dominating opponent being Hillary Clinton. He cornered Clinton on the grounds of her husband’s legacy. Obama sold his novelty in politics, young age as long required fresh air for the sullen DC politics. And he sold his being black as his major trait, urging US voters to chose him as first black president of the US, appealing them that by doing so, they can turn a new leaf in history, be part of history writing and show the world that, ‘Yes They Can’ chose a black citizen as their president.

He spectacularly succeeded in selling his ‘Yes We Can’ slogan to the democratic party voters and later to the US citizen at large. He defeated battle hardy republican candidate John McCain, by opposing Iraq war and saying that the US can’t play the role of world’s policeman. These were positions diagonally opposed to the normal US politician, who have almost always preferred war over peace, due to pressure of military-industrial complex or due to hawkish arrogance of having supreme confidence in capabilities of their economy and military.

Interestingly, when Obama was chosen US president, its economy was in deep recession, if not depression and world trade was in shambles. Militarily too, the US was in no position even to dictate terms in the war torn Afghanistan. Its forces failed to establish peace in Iraq after dethroning and executing Saddam Hussein.

Obama as president elect, participated in a meeting of world leaders to discuss world economic situation in Washington. This meeting was called by Obama’s predecessor George W. Bush. He must have had a feeling that he was going to have presidency during one of the most challenging phases of US history.

But as was his wont, after taking oath of office, as he walked into the worst US economic crisis in decades, he said, “while our economy may be weakened, our confidence shaken, tonight, I want every American to know this, we will rebuild, we will recover and the US of A will emerge stronger than ever before.”

Well, that was seven years ago. These were words from Obama’s first state of union address.

When Obama took office, the US was bruised militarily too. Billions had already been spent on Bush’ War on terror, still the result was big Zero. Al Qaida chief, Osama Bin Laden who made himself famous by attacking the US mainland first time in its history from outside through 9/11 plane attack, was still at large. The famous Axis of Evil, as named by, Bush, were alive and kicking, creating headache for the US. The European allies of the US had their confidence shaken in the US leadership, due to repeated misadventures. Russia under the strong leadership of Vladimir Putin was challenging US hegemony. China was on the verge of taking over the US as biggest economy of the world. Obama inherited two stalemated wars from Bush. In Iraq there was complete breakdown of a nation. In Afghanistan, despite being there for almost a decade, the US forces were nowhere.

On home front, people were feeling invasion of state, in their lives, due to enhanced security protocol being established after 9/11. Economic hardships were widening the gap between rich and poor. Bush administration was seen as siding with all pervading state security and intelligence agencies. Immigrants were feeling most threatened. That fear was hindering the incoming flow of fresh talent into the US economy.

Obama started with rebuilding and reconciliation.  Rebuilding the economy and relationships, and, reconciling with the alienated fellows. He set lofty ideals as his agenda. Taxing the rich, pushing for greener fuel options, affordable healthcare for all, ending the war, winning the confidence of allies, limiting the list of enemies, closing Guantanamo bay prison facility in Cuban Island. He wanted to be people’s president. So, he was seen at times in university campus, some time sprinting along with public, buying hamburger with his deputy Joe Biden standing in queue.

When he chose his first term cabinet, it became an example of reconciliation. He chose Hillary Clinton as his secretary of state, with whom he had fought a bruising political battle to get his party’s nomination for presidential election. Despite hugely differing his predecessor Bush, he retained Robert Gates as his defence secretary, to have a continuation of policies, still, making some turnaround decision like, withdrawal of forces from Iraq and Afghanistan.

He advocated reconnect with Muslim world, visited Cairo university, made it a point to chose a Muslim country for his first foreign visit. Despite huge pressure from hawks of Republican party and his own party, he made a nuke deal with Iran to end the hostilities. After almost after half a century of animosity, mistrust and conspiracies, he made up with Cuba, thus ending the longest diplomatic hostility. Due to his breaking off from traditional US thinking, he had several run ins with the US congress. On relationship with Iran and Cuba and on taxing the rich. Due to his rich tax proposal, US government had to shut down for 16 days, third longest in US history, as the US Congress refused to approve Obama’s budget proposals. After threatening to rule by executive order, he finally made up with the Congress by giving up on some of the tax proposals. He again had to fight with the US congress to get approval of his deal with Iran on his pet project Obama care, which was and continues to be bogged down of controversies.

Despite his lofty ideal of pushing for greener and cleaner fuel, Obama could not muster courage to tax gas guzzlers as he had promised during his campaign. But, he claimed to have a cleaner America after his seven year rules, via more solar and wind energy production, which became historically high during his regime. It was during Obama regime that in 2010, the US faced its worst environmental disaster by the name of BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.

For the immigrants wishing to come to the US and work there, Obama administration was like dream come true, despite continuously reminding challenges from Indian and Chinese work force, Obama relaxed immigrants law, despite stout opposition from hawks at home.

On war on terror front, at best it can be said that Obama got mixed results. It was during his regime that the US finally succeeded in bringing Osama Bin Laden to justice, by killing him in a night raid in Pakistan’s Abottabad. He withdrew US forces from Iraq, refused to commit ground forces in Syria despite huge pressure. And with the help of his European allies, succeeded in dethroning long time enemy Colonel Gaddafi of Libya. He announced a draw down from Afghanistan. But most of these action have led to chaos. Peace in Iraq in shambles. A terror colossus has risen from the war ravaged Iraq by the name of ISIS, which is targeting not just US friendly regimes in middle east, but also, spilling blood in the US mainland and Europe. Not to mention the huge refugee crisis the bombarding and funding of anti Assad fighters in Syria has led to. Despite his good intentions, Obama couldn’t send out a strong message of respect for Islam by the US. Which could have lessened the impact of rise of ISIS. US is still seen as enemy. With its interest targeted worldwide. From, Iraq and Pakistan, to Turkey and Indonesia. Afghanistan is in complete chaos. The US is forced to talk to ‘Good Taliban’. Its ally Pakistan has become new Axis of evil as Obama himself said in his last State of Union Address.

If we talk about biggest high point of Obama’s international relations achievements, it surely is nuclear deal with Iran. Re establishing ties with Cuba comes a close second. But Russian usurpation of Crimea from Ukraine, remains and will remain so, as the biggest blot of Obama regime. From the perspective of Cold War philosophy, the US looked weak, having surrendered its self respect to a bully named Putin. While the stated intent of US remains to expand NATO towards east, the Crimean episode has almost stalled the process.

Obama while committed to be a dove, when came under nationalist pressure, acted unwillingly like a hawk. Or, he tried to look like one. Result of these half hearted attempts at silencing his critics proved disastrous. Examples are spread all over the Globe. North Korea is exploding hydrogen bomb. China is exerting itself across South China Sea, Taiwan Straits and Korean sea. Peace in Middle East looks more and more distant. Latin American nations united in last year’s Summit of Americas to oppose US’ hegemony in the region. But at the same breath, they appreciated rapprochement between Cuba and the US.

Despite his repeated promises to do so, Obama has been unable to shut down the notorious Gunatanamo Bay prison facility. His associates has tried to assure that the President plans to do during his last year in office.

During his two term, Obama has used every opportunity to look like a middle class family man, a normal mortal. He took her daughters for shopping, sometimes dropped them to school, expressed concern over bad influence of violence in society and internet on kids. He as president, often enjoyed walk with commoners, broke a leg, whenever he found time. He almost always joked about his allies and opponents when he interacted with journalists. He opened White House more than usual for citizens. During the 2012 School shooting incident, he literally wept out of concern for kids. And we saw re run of emotional Obama when he issued executive order for gun control as he couldn’t make Congress agree to his gun control measures.

During his last SOTU address, Obama renounced hardline approach towards ISIS, saying that we ourselves are giving them credence more than what they are. He tried to persuade his fellow countrymen to be confident about their nation, their ethos and not be afraid of immigrants.

If we look at this list, we find more failure than mention of success. But this failure means a lot. It clearly established a fact that he tried. And he tried hard. Like US shutdown, like Nuke deal with Iran. He made compromises too. And he also stood firm at times.

Obama started on a very positive notes, but he aimed too high, even beyond his capabilities and what US system of governance allows. So, I believe he should be pardoned for not succeeding and instead should be hailed for his out of the box approaches towards various vexed issues. He may have fewer achievements to mention. But, his attempts have shown us that the US can have alternative approach too, and they can bear results too.

At this point I would like congratulate him for his efforts. I wish he be remembered not just for being first black president of the US, but also for his far reaching efforts at making peace.

Thank You Mr. President for trying. People like us are proud of you.

The Pakistan Puzzle

As the dust settles over terror attack on IAF Pathankot airbase, after the security forces killed the 6 terrorists who intruded the heavily guarded base, now the big question stares at the Indian State, what to do with Pakistan? Should India talk or not? How to engage them, in which fashion and at which level? Hawks argue that we should do some hard talk, downgrade our diplomatic relationship with Islamabad and even expel some of their diplomats. While the doves argue that doing this will be akin to playing at the hands of terror outfits, who want to derail the recently initiated dialogue process between the neighboring nations. So, despite being wounded by another terror attack, India should carry on with the proposed FS level talks later this month.

The NDA government is caught in between. Posturing as a nationalist and hawkish regime is necessary for their political survival. But keeping the engagement with neighboring and troubled nation is also necessary to please the international audience. It is also necessary to engage the unfriendly and unruly nation, which if not done so, will again be back to its mischief.

While the Pathankot terror attack was going on, EAM Sushma Swaraj met with some seasoned ex diplomats to consult about relationship with Paksitan. How to deal with it? What to do with the dialogue process in the wake of this horrendous terror act. But, this meeting also failed to clear the confusion. So now we are in the state of stalemate.

Post the Pathankot attack, India has given Pakistan some evidences which establish link of terrorist with Pakistan. India has also shared some actionable intelligence with Islamabad to act upon. NSAs of both nations are in constant touch as was agreed a month ago, during the meeting in Bangkok. Pakistan’s PM Nawaz Sharif had rang PM Modi to convey his condolences and has assured to act upon the evidences and leads given by India. Nawaz has chaired two back to back meetings regarding this with all powerful army chief General Raheel Sharif in attendance. Pakistan media has reported that police of Pakistan’s Punjab province has conducted some raids too. But, that is too little for Indian establishment to go ahead with FS level talks which are proposed just a week from now.

Indo-Pak relations have seen so much ups and downs, and they pose one of the toughest challenges to the diplomats. It has been more complicated than the Soviet-US relations during Cold War. It has been even more complicated that Sino-US relations before the famous Kissinger visit in the 70s of last century. There are more such examples of troubled relationships between two nations bogged down by mistrust. Like Cuba and the US, Iran and the US, Saudi Arabia and Iran, Israel and Arab states and many more. These intriguing relationships between nations have been posing challenges before diplomats to resolve the contentious issues and get them talking, help them move forward, instead of embroiled in permanent state of distrust and mischief.

But, Indo-Pak relations have been much more bigger challenge than the aforesaid examples. Despite living wall to wall for over seven decades, sharing a common legacy, history and culture, these two nations have never been able to shed their bitterness and distrust for each other. They fell out with each other almost from the day they separated. And have not seen better days since, despite numerous efforts by their respective leaderships from time to time.

Now this Pathankot speed breaker is not a new one. We have seen it before, six month ago during Gurdaspur terror attacks, and many more times before. The hawks may not have noticed, but both nations have belied hopes by the way of their reactions to this latest terror attack. India didn’t blame Pakistan directly. Pakistan PM has show urgency. Though most of the security analysts insist that Pakistan Army doesn’t want  better relations with India and not on board with Nawaz Sharif on the matter of relationship with India, but I feel the Sharif in olive green is as much interested in peace as his civilian counterpart. He is already fighting a fierce battle with terrorists in the disturbed western front of his nation. Terrorists are posing a challenge even in urban areas, In Punjab and Sindh states. So, it makes sense for him to ease tension on Pakistan’s eastern front so that he will be able to put more of his men against fighting terrorists. Logical it may seem but most of the Indian establishment is not ready to believe that Pathankot terror attack was planned and executed without the support of Pakistan army or its notorious intelligence arm ISI. It may be partly true. Some elements in Pakistan are stoutly opposed to talks with India. They keep working on such terror formulas to derail the talks. Likewise, in India too, some hawks oppose any move by Indian establishment to engage positively with Paksitan saying that it has a history of backstabbing. It also seems logical. It has been happening since sixties when Field Marshal Ayub launched operation Gibralter in 1965 to wrest Kashmir from India. And this back stabbing by Pakistan has seen its manifestations in several shades. Pathankot is latest one.

Again the question arises, what to do with Pakistan? Answer to it lies not with Pakistan’s behavior, but with India’s preparedness and some out of the box ideas. India needs to upgrade its security and intelligence apparatus to meet and overpower the challenges, Pakistan’s deep states poses for it. Our intelligence gathering system has become obsolete. Multiple agencies and lack of co ordination among them makes the situation more complicated. This needs to be addressed as urgently as possible and it needs a makeover. Also quick sharing of information and strength during the time of crisis needs to be ramped up. Our security forces have shown the wherewithal to deal with terrorists attacks time and again. What we are lacking is our capacity to preempt them. This can be done only be applying modern, co-ordinated intelligence gathering and sensitizing the state apparatus accordingly, especially in frontline states like Punjab, Jammu Kashmir, Gujarat and Rajasthan.

You can firmly deal with an intriguing enemy like Pakistan with only from a position of strength. The US engaged with Soviets and China continuously, especially during crisis and also carried on with its aggressive security agenda. This it could do because of its good intelligence security system. Britain also did during its global dominance period. Russia and China also continue to do so. Disengaging isn’t an option. So, we have to talk with Pakistan, time and again. Even after more such terror acts. But we have to prepare ourselves to preempt such attacks. We have to be ready for such guerilla warfare of our enemy. Engaging with the enemy is most important to keep it on tenterhook. In these days of globalization we also need to make efforts to make Pakistan’s growth and development connected with ours. Wars can’t be always won by cannons. We need to learn that we can win them economically. Like US did with Cuba and Iran and earlier with China. Now US and Chinese economies are so intertwined that, both the nations can’t afford to rake up tension beyond a point. India needs to make such investments in Pakistan, so that any terror attack will carry a huge price tag that has to be paid by Pakistan state, its people. We need to integrate them more economically so that another terror attack leads to crippling of their economic system. Only such positions of strength with India will force Pakistan to shed its intrigues vis a vis India. And the rest of the work will be ably done by our diplomats. Diplomacy can’t work when the state has no leverage over the party with which they are going to engage.