As
the dust settles over terror attack on IAF Pathankot airbase, after the
security forces killed the 6 terrorists who intruded the heavily guarded base,
now the big question stares at the Indian State, what to do with Pakistan?
Should India talk or not? How to engage them, in which fashion and at which
level? Hawks argue that we should do some hard talk, downgrade our diplomatic
relationship with Islamabad and even expel some of their diplomats. While the
doves argue that doing this will be akin to playing at the hands
of terror outfits, who want to derail the recently initiated dialogue process
between the neighboring nations. So, despite being wounded by another terror
attack, India should carry on with the proposed FS level talks later this month.
The
NDA government is caught in between. Posturing as a nationalist and hawkish
regime is necessary for their political survival. But keeping the engagement
with neighboring and troubled nation is also necessary to please the
international audience. It is also necessary to engage the unfriendly and
unruly nation, which if not done so, will again be back to its mischief.
While
the Pathankot terror attack was going on, EAM Sushma Swaraj met with some
seasoned ex diplomats to consult about relationship with Paksitan. How to deal
with it? What to do with the dialogue process in the wake of this horrendous
terror act. But, this meeting also failed to clear the confusion. So now we are
in the state of stalemate.
Post
the Pathankot attack, India has given Pakistan some evidences which establish
link of terrorist with Pakistan. India has also shared some actionable
intelligence with Islamabad to act upon. NSAs of both nations are in constant
touch as was agreed a month ago, during the meeting in Bangkok. Pakistan’s PM
Nawaz Sharif had rang PM Modi to convey his condolences and has assured to act
upon the evidences and leads given by India. Nawaz has chaired two back to back
meetings regarding this with all powerful army chief General Raheel Sharif in
attendance. Pakistan media has reported that police of Pakistan’s Punjab
province has conducted some raids too. But, that is too little for Indian
establishment to go ahead with FS level talks which are proposed just a week
from now.
Indo-Pak
relations have seen so much ups and downs, and they pose one of the toughest
challenges to the diplomats. It has been more complicated than the Soviet-US
relations during Cold War. It has been even more complicated that Sino-US
relations before the famous Kissinger visit in the 70s of last century. There
are more such examples of troubled relationships between two nations bogged
down by mistrust. Like Cuba and the US, Iran and the US, Saudi Arabia and Iran,
Israel and Arab states and many more. These intriguing relationships between nations
have been posing challenges before diplomats to resolve the contentious issues
and get them talking, help them move forward, instead of embroiled in permanent
state of distrust and mischief.
But,
Indo-Pak relations have been much more bigger challenge than the aforesaid
examples. Despite living wall to wall for over seven decades, sharing a common
legacy, history and culture, these two nations have never been able to shed
their bitterness and distrust for each other. They fell out with each other almost
from the day they separated. And have not seen better days since, despite
numerous efforts by their respective leaderships from time to time.
Now
this Pathankot speed breaker is not a new one. We have seen it before, six
month ago during Gurdaspur terror attacks, and many more times before. The
hawks may not have noticed, but both nations have belied hopes by the way of
their reactions to this latest terror attack. India didn’t blame Pakistan
directly. Pakistan PM has show urgency. Though most of the security analysts
insist that Pakistan Army doesn’t want better relations with India and
not on board with Nawaz Sharif on the matter of relationship with India, but I
feel the Sharif in olive green is as much interested in peace as his civilian
counterpart. He is already fighting a fierce battle with terrorists in the
disturbed western front of his nation. Terrorists are posing a challenge even
in urban areas, In Punjab and Sindh states. So, it makes sense for him to ease
tension on Pakistan’s eastern front so that he will be able to put more of his
men against fighting terrorists. Logical it may seem but most of the Indian
establishment is not ready to believe that Pathankot terror attack was planned
and executed without the support of Pakistan army or its notorious intelligence
arm ISI. It may be partly true. Some elements in Pakistan are stoutly opposed
to talks with India. They keep working on such terror formulas to derail the
talks. Likewise, in India too, some hawks oppose any move by Indian establishment
to engage positively with Paksitan saying that it has a history of
backstabbing. It also seems logical. It has been happening since sixties when
Field Marshal Ayub launched operation Gibralter in 1965 to wrest Kashmir from
India. And this back stabbing by Pakistan has seen its manifestations in
several shades. Pathankot is latest one.
Again
the question arises, what to do with Pakistan? Answer to it lies not with
Pakistan’s behavior, but with India’s preparedness and some out of the box
ideas. India needs to upgrade its security and intelligence apparatus to meet
and overpower the challenges, Pakistan’s deep states poses for it. Our
intelligence gathering system has become obsolete. Multiple agencies and lack
of co ordination among them makes the situation more complicated. This needs to
be addressed as urgently as possible and it needs a makeover. Also quick
sharing of information and strength during the time of crisis needs to be
ramped up. Our security forces have shown the wherewithal to deal with terrorists
attacks time and again. What we are lacking is our capacity to preempt them.
This can be done only be applying modern, co-ordinated intelligence gathering
and sensitizing the state apparatus accordingly, especially in frontline states
like Punjab, Jammu Kashmir, Gujarat and Rajasthan.
You
can firmly deal with an intriguing enemy like Pakistan with only from a
position of strength. The US engaged with Soviets and China continuously,
especially during crisis and also carried on with its aggressive security
agenda. This it could do because of its good intelligence security system.
Britain also did during its global dominance period. Russia and China also
continue to do so. Disengaging isn’t an option. So, we have to talk with
Pakistan, time and again. Even after more such terror acts. But we have to
prepare ourselves to preempt such attacks. We have to be ready for such
guerilla warfare of our enemy. Engaging with the enemy is most important to
keep it on tenterhook. In these days of globalization we also need to make
efforts to make Pakistan’s growth and development connected with ours. Wars
can’t be always won by cannons. We need to learn that we can win them
economically. Like US did with Cuba and Iran and earlier with China. Now US and
Chinese economies are so intertwined that, both the nations can’t afford to
rake up tension beyond a point. India needs to make such investments in
Pakistan, so that any terror attack will carry a huge price tag that has to be
paid by Pakistan state, its people. We need to integrate them more economically
so that another terror attack leads to crippling of their economic system. Only
such positions of strength with India will force Pakistan to shed its intrigues
vis a vis India. And the rest of the work will be ably done by our diplomats.
Diplomacy can’t work when the state has no leverage over the party with which
they are going to engage.
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