शुक्रवार, 26 दिसंबर 2008

Indo-Pak Tension: It’s all gains for Kayani & Co.


It was the springs of 2007 when the then army chief of Pakistan, Gen. Musharraf turned tables against himself. He fired the then Chief Justice of Pakistan, Justice Iftekhar Chowdhury. Pakistan Army which was seen clinging to power suddenly became a demon in the eyes of Pakistani people, who is hell bent to derail the process of nation-building, and Musharraf became its symbol. Large scale protests started across Pakistan against Martial Law. Soon it became a national crisis in Pakistan. People cutting across all lanes and by-lanes of society came out in street against Musharraf and Co. Army took help of its old friends, the religious fighters, Jehadi groups to terrorize protesting people. Several suicide bomb blasts took place in Punjab province at the places where a pro CJP rally was to be held or was being held. Apparently these blasts were staged to terrorize protesters. But, this could not deter people of Pakistan in their tirade against Mush. March for democracy continued. For the first time in its history, people of Pakistan were openly shouting slogans like—Army go back to barracks. Then to derail Justice Chowdhry’s rally in Karachi, MQM’s goons carried out savage killings of peaceful protesters. Rally was cancelled. But mood of people was defiant. Protests continued. Then came the fateful month of October 2007 when Musharraf trying to pacify feathers of social elites ordered the famous siege of Lal Mosque of Islamabad. This he did to distance himself from Jehadi group and establish secular credential of his army in the eyes of international players, who were becoming wary of his real intentions. His attempts backfired. The good old friends of Pakistan Army, the Jehadis did not take this well and soon they were brothers in arms with Pakistani people and against their creators-Pakistan Army. Under US pressure, Mush’s battalions were waging a battle along its Afghan border. This also alienated Pak army from common Pakistani. This whole scenario heavily dented the image and position of Pak army in Pakistani Society. The Olive dressers, who once were considered nations builders and hailed as saviors of Pakistani Nation, suddenly became crushers of Awam. Pakistan army was criticized for rocking the boat of democracy. The Generals stood isolated in Pakistan with no friend in the western capitals either. At this juncture, Lt. General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, DG ISI, was promoted to a four star general and then Gen Musharraf handed over the baton of Pak army to Kayani by making him Chief of Army Staff or COAS or Army Chief.

When Kayani took over from Musharraf, Pak army was in very bad shape. It was waging a battle along Durand line against its own people. The defenders of nation had become enemies of Pakistan. The large scale desertions weren’t helping either. To save its image from more bruises, Pak army negotiated a peace deal with Pakistani Taliban. This move instead of helping regain its position in Pakistani society did more harm to its image for capitulation to Jehadi groups. Kayani had no option but to yield to popular demand and he slowly started retreating from the scene, like any smart General only to retaliate once his forces regain vitals and situation is ready to turn to his favour.

GHQ Rawalpinidi consciously started efforts to make image of its new COAS. Words suddenly spread that Kayani was very professional soldier, totally apolitical, keen on rebuilding army’s downed morals and image. When people of Pakistan were waging war for democracy on the streets of Pakistan, Kayani, at his palatial office in Rawalpindi was considering his next moves so as to position Pak army as pivot of its policies and decision making. Feb 2008 general elections gave surprising results. Long sidelined, opposition democratic parties claimed and achieved power. Musharraf had to retreat to his post retirement bungalow. Soon, like any newborn democracy, political parties started sparring among themselves. Kayani never tried to intervene. In fact he never even thought of it. It was all his gains as political players quarreled like cats. He kept enjoying it. Sharif and Zardari parted ways, with no effect on GHQ behavior.

In July, 2008, after acceding to presidency, flamboyant Zardari now started thinking of contending the all powerful army. His trusted aide, Rehman Mullick openly advised that all powerful intelligence wing of army, the rogue Inter Services Intelligence or ISI must be under civilian control. This logical but daring advice changed the scenario and gave an opportunity to Kayani for which he was waiting for long and patiently. As was expected, Pak army retaliated heavily against the Rehman Mullick’s suggestion. It refused to hand over the reins of ISI to civilian government. At this time, Gen Kayani promoted his trusted aide Major Gen. Ahmed Shuja Pasha to a Lieutenant General and made him DG of ISI, a post he himself held earlier. By his move Gen Kayani made a signature statement that his army may be down but surely it is not out yet. Still, time had not come when Army can come out of the barracks or generals could have been able to reinstate credibility of the institution called—Fauj. But, like any General, Kayani was desperate, he didn’t want to be on the sidelines for long, he was smarting under the circumstances and was desperate to change it.

Seeing its top boss’ discomfort, the ISI drew a plan. This plan was to plan to regain credibility in the eyes of common Pakistani, prominence in the society and command over Pakistan’s decision making. A truce was arranged with Tehriq-E-Taliban. And then with the help of these very Jehadis, suicide attack on Indian Embassy of Kabul was staged. An embassy is considered the country’s territory and its violation or attack is deemed as attack on the country itself. To sum up things I would like to draw a headline in ET on the news-“India attacked in Kabul.” As was expected by the ISI conspirators, India was enraged, but to their dismay it did not respond the way they desired. Their ploy had backfired. The US and other western forces tightened the screws on Pak generals. The US Fleet commander of Indian Ocean, Admiral Mike Mullen summoned top Pak generals including Kayani at his aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln’s deck for a dressing down. Kayani returned Rawalpindi, humiliated, infuriated. Now he had another task in hand. To teach western bosses a lesson that he must not be taken for granted.

Seeing their boss’ mood the ISI dug out a plan shelved for almost a year. Target India. Target its financial capital, target with precision, target with immense brutality and sheer element of surprise. They wished to achieve three goals by targeting Mumbai. First was to reestablish credibility of Fauj, Second was to achieve central position in every decision making regarding security of Pakistan and third to convey a message to Western capitals, loud and clear that they cannot be taken for granted.

It is needless to elaborate on the failure of Indian intelligence gathering establishment. But it must be pointed out that the Indian diplomatic elites, South and North block mandarins failed to see the ploy at the initial level. It is now, after one month of the 26/11 that it is dawning upon them that the whole plot was actually designed, written and executed with precision by none other than Pakistan Army.

The ease with which Pakistan army has raised the slogan of national sovereignty, security and pride, shows it all. One by one, step by step, by creating war hysteria, about threat from its eastern border, Pak army seems to have achieved all of the aforesaid objectives.

By creating a threat from India, its old enemy, Generals have succeeded in drumming up nationalistic fervor among common Pakistanis. Now Pak citizens are seeing army as saviors of their nation. Since Zardari came to power, he was making amends to Pakistan’s policies towards India. He said of resolving Kashmir Issues sooner. He intended to be friends with India and even went on to say that India was never a threat to Pakistan. Even after Mumbai attack Zardari was offering full cooperation to India, was even ready to send ISI boss to help in investigation. Opposition leader Nawaz Sharif was also asking his government to extend full support to India. He accepted Kasab as Pakistani citizen on national television. Pak army, whose whole philosophy is based on opposing India, the philosophy of its very existence, could not digest Zardari’s words. Nor was it ready to give Sharif an opportunity to capitalize a political mileage.

Situations and war of words clearly indicate the change in Pakistan, its politics, mood on its streets. These were the very objectives, Kayani and his commanders intended to achieve. Sharif has climbed down from his earlier statement. PM Gilani is praising army for its preparedness and now the dove Zardari says that he will fight for Pakistan unto his last breath and last drop of blood. Anti-India slogans are again been heard shouting in major Pakistani towns. Fauj is ready to retaliate within minutes if Pakistan’s sovereignty is violated. It is like as if India is about to attack airbases in Sargodha, Mianwali and Chaklala. According to reports, Pakistan is redeploying troops from Durand line to Mcmohan line. By doing so, Pak generals are trying to give a message to US and other western powers too, that they cannot be taken for granted. That they are not fighting with Taliban on Afghanistan border without a price. That Pak army is well within its rights to withdraw forces from Wana and Swat and other FATA regions. That if west chooses to support India it will also have to pay a price. It will not get the support from Pakistan army. On this front, Kayani has achieved positive results. Mullen reached Islamabad to praise Pakistan. Interpol chief also towed the line of Pakistan.

The attack on Kabul backfired on Kayani and Co. But they drew lessons. This time, after 26/11 it seems they had a backup plan. And now, it’s all gains for them, with India, Zardari and the west all dancing to their tunes.

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